Every week brings a new "X% of shoppers use AI" headline. Most come from companies that sell AI or analytics tools, which doesn't make them wrong, but it does mean you should know who's counting. Below, each figure says who published it and what it measures. Vendor sources are marked.
1. How big is AI search, really?
OpenAI's own research paper, published through the NBER in September 2025, analysed about 1.1 million conversations. "Seeking information" grew from 14% to 24% of messages in a year, and non-work use passed 70%. A small but real share of that information-seeking is product research. OpenAI later reported 800 million weekly users (October 2025) and 900 million (February 2026), and a figure of about 1.2 billion was presented at DevDay in September 2026. Google's Gemini app reported 950 million monthly users in July 2026, which isn't directly comparable to weekly figures.
2. How many consumers actually use AI to shop?
The honest answer is a range, because surveys define "use" differently:
| Finding | Who / sample |
|---|---|
| 27% actively used AI tools to research or decide what to buy in the past 3 months. 55% say AI recommendations at least sometimes influence purchases. | NIQ, Oct 202621,000+ people, 31 countries |
| 1 in 4 consumers used generative AI shopping tools in 2025, and another 31% plan to. | Capgemini Research Institute, Jan 202612,000 people, 12 countries |
| 39% have used AI for online shopping; 85% of them said it improved the experience. | Adobe, Apr 2026 5,000+ US · vendor |
| 56% used generative AI during the 2025 holiday season; 34% of them to compare products. | Synchrony, Mar 20261,000 US adults |
| 44% of people who use AI search call it their primary source for buying decisions. | McKinsey, Aug 20251,927 US consumers |
The gap between 25% and 56% is about definitions (recent, active use versus any use in a season), not a contradiction. Either way, it's no longer a niche.
3. Traffic and conversion: growing fast, from a small base
These numbers look like they disagree, and they're worth reading together. Adobe sees AI traffic growing several-fold and, by March 2026, converting 42% better than other traffic (a year earlier it converted 38% worse). The independent academic study, based on first-party data from 973 stores and $20B in revenue, found ChatGPT was still a tiny share of visits and converted below organic search over its earlier measurement window. Similarweb's panel model estimated ChatGPT referrals converting at 11.4% vs 5.3% for organic (vendor estimate).
Our read: AI-referred visitors arrive later in the decision, so they convert well, but there aren't many of them yet. Also, analytics tools often file AI visits under "direct", so referral numbers likely understate AI's influence.
4. Fewer clicks from search
The most neutral data here comes from Pew Research, which tracked the real browsing of 900 US adults across 68,879 Google searches in March 2025:
- With an AI summary on the page, users clicked a traditional result on 8% of visits, versus 15% without one.
- They clicked a link inside the AI summary on just 1% of visits.
- Sessions ended on the results page 26% of the time with a summary, versus 16% without.
Ahrefs (vendor) found AI Overviews were linked to a 58% lower click-through rate for the #1 result in its December 2025 re-run. Correlational, but consistent with Pew.
5. Buying inside ChatGPT didn't take off (yet)
OpenAI launched Instant Checkout and the open Agentic Commerce Protocol with Stripe on September 29, 2025, starting with Etsy sellers and promising Shopify merchants. By February 2026, Forrester estimated only around 30 Shopify merchants were live. Walmart said in-chat purchases converted at about one-third the rate of click-outs to Walmart.com, and by late March 2026 OpenAI had wound down Instant Checkout to focus on discovery.
6. B2B buyers moved first
- G2 (2026, n=1,076, review site, so vendor): 51% of B2B software buyers now start research in an AI chatbot more often than Google, and 69% chose a different vendor because of chatbot guidance.
- Forrester: 89% of B2B buyers had adopted generative AI somewhere in their buying process (2024).
- TrustRadius (2025, vendor) found only 7% used LLMs like ChatGPT directly in buying, but 72% encountered Google AI Overviews. Different panels, different years, so treat B2B adoption as real but unevenly measured.
What this means for you
- Measure presence, not rank. Answers vary run to run, so track how often you're named across many runs.
- Make sure AI can read you. Check robots.txt and CDN bot rules (see our AI crawler cheat sheet).
- Win the sources AI trusts. Reviews, comparisons and earned coverage carry more weight than your own blog (see how ChatGPT picks brands).
- Fix attribution. Tag AI referrers in analytics so "direct" stops swallowing your AI traffic.
Methodology: we used primary sources where possible and press coverage of primary reports otherwise. Figures from companies that sell analytics, SEO or commerce tools are marked as vendor sources.
Sources
- OpenAI / NBER — How People Use ChatGPT (Sept 2025)
- TechCrunch — ChatGPT reaches 900M weekly active users (Feb 2026)
- TechCrunch — Sam Altman: 800M weekly users (Oct 2025)
- Alphabet Q2 2026 earnings release
- NIQ — 55% of consumers now use AI during product discovery (Oct 2026)
- Synchrony — Generative AI is fast becoming consumers' go-to shopping advisor
- McKinsey — New front door to the internet: winning in the age of AI search
- Digital Commerce 360 — Adobe: generative AI holiday traffic 2025
- TechCrunch — AI traffic to US retailers rose 393% in Q1 (Apr 2026)
- Similarweb — Global Ecommerce Report 2025
- Modern Retail — Ecommerce sites see low sales from ChatGPT traffic (Kaiser & Schulze)
- Pew Research — Google users less likely to click when an AI summary appears (July 2025)
- Ahrefs — AI Overviews reduce clicks (update)
- OpenAI — Buy it in ChatGPT (Sept 2025)
- CNBC — OpenAI agentic shopping: Etsy, Shopify, Walmart (Mar 2026)
- Search Engine Land — Walmart: ChatGPT checkout converted worse
- G2 — 2026 AI search insight report
- Forrester — B2B buyer adoption of generative AI
- TrustRadius — B2B tech buying in the age of AI (PDF)